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Academy Award Oscar Predictions 2002

Peter Rist , peterist@alcor.concordia.ca

January 31, 2002


Here are my bold predictions for Oscar nominations, which will be announced early on Tuesday morning, February 12:

There won't be any Chinese nominations this year, I am sure. IN THE MOOD FOR LOVE isn't eligible and the only Chinese-language film on the ballot (apart from THE CABBIE, Taiwan, and Johnnie To/Wai Ka-fai's FULL TIME KILLER, Hong Kong, up for Best Foreign-language Film consideration) is Tsui Hark's TIME AND TIDE.

Here are my top 8 guesses for the five nominations in each of the six "major" categories, in order of likelihood:

BEST PICTURE:

    1. A BEAUTIFUL MIND (IT WILL ALSO WIN, I'M SURE)
    2. THE LORD OF THE RINGS: The Fellowship of the Ring (which will probably score the most nominations; and, the only other certainty)
    3. MOULIN ROUGE
    4. AMÉLIE
    5. BLACK HAWK DOWN (I hope I'm wrong on this one)
    6. SHREK (even though it is sure to get a nomination for Best Animated feature; the studio is plugging it for Best Picture)
    7. IN THE BEDROOM (Why on earth does everyone like this so much?)
    8. GOSFORD PARK

BEST DIRECTOR

    1. PETER JACKSON: Lord of the Rings
    2. BAZ LUHRMAN: Moulin Rouge (don't understand all of the fuss over this film, either)
    3. RON HOWARD: A Beautiful Mind (BM) (I'm hoping that the first rank Hollywood feature directors, who are the only people allowed to nominate in this category will overlook him, because, if he's nominated, he's going to win)
    4. JEAN-PIERRE JEUNET: Amélie (maybe)
    5. ROBERT ALTMAN: Gosford Park (just a hunch)
    6. DAVID LYNCH: Mulholland Drive (which could be the only nomination this film gets)
    7. RIDLEY SCOTT: Black Hawk Down
    8. CHRISTOPHER NOLAN: Memento (who somehow managed to get a Directors' Guild nomination)

BEST ACTOR in a leading role

    1. RUSSELL CROWE: BM (oh no, not again!)
    2. WILL SMITH: Ali (who looked a shoe-in at the end of 2001. Now it will be a surprise if the film gets more than a couple of nominations)
    3. DENZEL WASHINGTON: Training Day (good performance, lousy film)
    4. TOM WILKINSON: In the Bedroom
    5. GENE HACKMAN: The Royal Tenenbaums (He may well get a supporting nomination, instead, in which case he might win, even though the film is a comedy)
    6. SEAN PENN: I Am Sam
    7. BILLY BOB THORNTON: Monster's Ball (or, The Man Who Wasn't There)
    8. GUY PEARCE: Memento (He's an Aussie)

BEST ACTRESS in a leading role

    1. SISSY SPACEK: ...Bedroom
    2. JUDY DENCH: Iris (a truly great performance)
    3. NICOLE KIDMAN: The Others (a really fine ghost story, right Donato?)
    4. RENE ZELLWEGER: Briget Jones' Diary (a film long forgotten, but, Hollywood loves the fact that an American actress actually got a Brit accent right)
    5. HALLE BERRY: Monster's Ball
    6. KIDMAN: Moulin Rouge (Entertainment Weekly's personality of the year might well score two nominations in the same year. They love her, not Tom now.)
    7. TILDA SWINTON: The Deep End (like Spacek: a terrific performance in an overrated film)
    8. AUDREY TAUTOU: Amélie (provided that the backlash against Miramax is not too strong)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. BEN KINGSLEY: Sexy Beast (provided that a sufficient number of Actors Guild members see this British film, he is the early favourite: Hollywood acknowledges "acting" when it is most obvious--here Ghandi plays the most obnoxious gangster, imaginable.)
    2. JIM BROADBENT: Iris (same as Dench, above)
    3. IAN MCKELLEN: Lord of the Rings
    4. STEVE BUSCEMI: Ghost World (I wish)
    5. JON VOIGHT: Ali (see Smith, above)
    6. ETHAN HAWK: Training Day
    7. JIM BROADBENT: Moulin Rouge (another possible double-nominee)
    8. EDDIE MURPHY: Shrek (in which case, it would be the very first nomination for a voice-actor)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. HELEN MIRREN: Gosford Park
    2. JENNIFER CONNELLY: BM (She should be in the "leading" category but the studio has sneakily suggested a nom in the supporting category: If she gets it, she'll probably win)
    3. NAOMI WATTS: Mulholland Drive (in the American performance of the year, by far: and, surprise, she's an Aussie too!!!)
    4. CATE BLANCHETT: Bandits (or, The Shipping News, or, Lord of the Rings; yes, you guessed it: another Aussie!)
    5. MAGGIE SMITH: Gosford Park (these performances, including Emily Watson, Kristin Scott Thomas, and others, may cancel one another out)
    6. CAMERON DIAZ: Vanilla Sky (I can't bring myself to see this film: I'm going on expert opinion, here)
    7. KATE WINSLETT: Iris (see Broadbent and Dench, above)
    8. DENCH: The Shipping News (She could be another double-nominee, although the anti-Miramax factor could really hurt this film: that's why I didn't go for Kevin Spacey, although he could be nominated for K-PAX)